The US election is finally afoot and all eyes are on the United States to find out who will be taking up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Although the United States is on the other side of the planet, the outcome of the election could have major effects on the lives of Australians – and not just Australian-Americans who live here.
Will former president Donald Trump be moving back in or will the US join its allies and finally elect its first-ever woman president with Vice President Kamala Harris?
Here’s a look at what each candidate’s victory could mean for us.
How could the US election affect Australian strategic and security relationships?
The United States is Australia’s most important (or at least biggest) military ally and critical partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The potential biggest impact of the election could be its effect on the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact between the US, the UK and Australia, and the Quad alliance of Australia, India, Japan and the US.
Under Harris:
As a candidate with strong support for alliances, Vice President Kamala Harris would likely keep US-Australia ties steady and secure. Harris hasn’t spoken too much about her foreign policy plans, however, it is expected she would maintain the course in place by the Biden administration.
Her administration would likely aim to deepen partnerships within AUKUS and the Quad to maintain a firm approach to counter China’s influence and ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
For Australia, this could mean continued access to advanced military technology and intelligence sharing – like with the development of nuclear-powered submarines (not due to be operational until the end of the next decade, so a few administrations from now) – and diplomatic support and security partnerships, helping to stabilise our own trade and security concerns.
Under Trump:
Former President Donald Trump has shown a willingness to shift alliances based on “America First” principles. If he returns to office, we could see a transactional approach to foreign policy, requiring Australia to shoulder more responsibility for regional security. That might lead to an increased burden on our defence budget and pressure to strengthen alliances with Japan, India and other neighbours.
We can assume he would be unlikely to unwind AUKUS, as it is popular with both Republicans and Democrats. However, as he didn’t make the deal, he may try to bring leaders from both the UK and Australia back to the table to re-pen the agreement.
Regarding China, Trump has been consistently confrontational. This could put Australia in a bind, forcing us to walk a tightrope between the two superpowers. In such a scenario, we’d likely need to adopt a more independent stance, balancing our relationship with China in sectors like education, tourism, and exports, even as we maintain our security commitments with the US.
How could the US election affect Australian trade and economy?
The United States is one of Australia’s most important trading partners. A lot has been said concerning tariffs during the former president’s campaign.
Under Harris:
President Joe Biden’s administration did not wind back any of the tariffs or changes to trade deals implemented by then-President Trump during his first go-around as leader of the US. There’s no news on whether current Vice President Kamala Harris will continue with the current policies or implement changes.
However, it is safe to assume that Harris’s administration would likely favour free trade and multilateral engagement. This could open up new avenues for Australia-US trade in sectors like technology, agriculture, and critical minerals. With a growing global demand for materials like lithium, cobalt and other rare earth elements – which are key to renewable technologies – a Harris administration could make Australia a key partner in securing clean energy supply chains, boosting both our economy and global climate goals.
Under Trump:
If the former president is successful in his campaign, we can expect tariffs to be on the horizon – meaning imports to the US of Australian products and investments tied to the US economy would be under pressure – as his administration will have a focus on US protectionism which could disrupt global markets.
Trump has stated that he would place a 10–20 per cent tariff on all imported goods – and up to 60 per cent for China specifically, the largest importer to the US market.
Now, there has been no confirmation on how this tariff plan would affect the country’s current trade agreements – including the Australian-US free trade agreement, which allows for tariff-free exports for Australia. The US is a major importer of Australian steel, meat, precious stones minerals and pharmaceutical products to mention a few. So if we are targeted by tariffs, our products would be more expensive and therefore less attractive to the American market.
However, even if Australia is not directly impacted, there is a risk that by specifically targeting China, Australia could be affected by a trade war as they are our major trading partner as well.
A more self-focused US could also mean fewer opportunities for collaborative ventures in technology, agriculture, and manufacturing, leaving Australia to fill the gap with alternative partners in Asia or Europe.
How could the US election affect Australian climate and environmental policies?
Former President Trump recently stated that climate change is “one of the greatest scams of all time”. Vice President Kamala Harris has said that it is an “existential threat”. The candidates differ greatly on this topic, but only Trump has been very vocal on his stance and policies.
Under Harris:
Although she hasn’t been very vocal on climate policies during her campaign, a Harris administration would prioritise climate change policies. She was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the Inflation Reduction Act which allocated $370US billion to reduce emission to below 40 percent by 2030. Also, as attorney general of California, she litigated oil companies for breaking environmental laws.
We could see opportunities for Australia to collaborate on climate initiatives, especially in areas like renewable energy and hydrogen. Additionally, such an administration would almost certainly push Australia to meet more ambitious climate targets (cough, Paris agreement, cough) working with our government to maintain momentum in the global transition to renewable energy.
Under Trump:
Trump’s return to the office could slow global progress on climate, given his scepticism about climate policies, infamous hatred of windmills and his support of fossil fuels – famously saying “Drill, baby drill.” He is promising to increase oil and gas production projects in the US and undo the current administration’s support of renewables projects and the Inflation Reduction Act.
On a global scale, he has promised to take the US out of the Paris Agreement (as he did when he was last president), which Australia is a signatory of, but who’s to say if he takes it further, should he be successful in this campaign?
For Australia, this might lessen international pressure on our own emissions targets but could also isolate us as other allies move ahead with stronger climate action. In sectors where climate-friendly policies boost economic growth, such as renewables, we’d lose a vital partner in the US, possibly slowing our progress in both domestic and regional efforts.
In conclusion…
In short, a Harris administration would likely mean a more stable, collaborative relationship with Australia on issues ranging from climate to security and technology. Whereas, a second Trump presidency could bring challenges, that require Australia to readjust its regional security, climate policies and overall self-sufficiency.
Regardless, the US election outcome will shape not just our diplomacy but our role in a fast-evolving global landscape.
We’ll be keeping an eye on the results, will you?
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