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The United States has a new president. How does that affect Australia?

Curious about how we could be impacted by the returning US president? Find out more…
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 20: U.S. President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd during an indoor inauguration parade at Capital One Arena on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Donald Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

As of Monday, January 20, 2025, (Tuesday AEDT) Donald J Trump has been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.

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Although the United States is on the other side of the planet, the president of the US could have major effects on the lives of Australians — and not just Australian-Americans who live here. 

Former president Donald J Trump was triumphant over Vice President Kamala Harris — who (had she been successful) would have been the first-ever woman president of the United States.  

Here’s a look into what Donald’s presidency could mean for us here in Australia.

Donald J Trump sworn in as the 47th president of the United States.
Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th president of the United States by Chief Justice John Roberts. Melania Trump holds the Bible during the 60th Presidential Inauguration on January 20, 2025. (Photo by Morry Gash / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MORRY GASH/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
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How could the US president affect Australian strategic and security relationships?

The United States is Australia’s most important (or at least biggest) military ally and critical partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The potential biggest impact of the new administration could be its effect on the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact between the US, the UK and Australia, and the Quad alliance of Australia, India, Japan and the US.

Former President Donald Trump has shown a willingness to shift alliances based on “America First” principles. We could see a transactional approach to foreign policy, requiring Australia to shoulder more responsibility for regional security. That might lead to an increased burden on our defence budget and pressure to strengthen alliances with Japan, India and other neighbours.

We can assume he would be unlikely to unwind AUKUS, as it is popular with both Republicans and Democrats. However, as he didn’t make the deal, he may try to bring leaders from both the UK and Australia back to the table to re-pen the agreement.

In his inaugural speech, he chastised the former administration for providing “unlimited funding to the defence of foreign borders” instead of protecting its citizens.

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After being sworn in, the reelected president signed numerous executive orders. One of which was to put “Americans first” as the country joined international agreements that “do not reflect our country’s values.”

The executive order states that Donald’s administration will put the interests of United States citizens first. And make specific mention of the Paris Agreement (more on that below). AUKUS was not included in the executive order.

He also signed an order to halt foreign aid that is “not aligned with American interests.”

Regarding China, Donald was consistently confrontational during his presidential reelection campaign. This could put Australia in a bind, forcing us to walk a tightrope between the two superpowers. In such a scenario, we’d likely need to adopt a more independent stance, balancing our relationship with China in sectors like education, tourism, and exports. Even as we maintain our security commitments with the US.

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One of the other executive orders was for the US to withdraw from the World Health Organisation (WHO). Donald was critical of the health organisation during the COVID-19 pandemic. He cited that in the executive order alongside comments about the “onerous payments” that were “out of proportion with other countries’ assessed payments.”

Australia currently contributes AUD 75 million (2022-27 core contribution) to WHO.

US election 2024: Former US president Donald Trump at a rally.

How could the US election affect Australian trade and economy?

The United States is one of Australia’s most important trading partners. A lot has been said concerning tariffs during the former president’s campaign. Now Donald has been voted in, we can expect tariffs on the horizon — meaning imports to the US of Australian products and investments tied to the US economy would be under pressure — as his administration will have a focus on US protectionism which could disrupt global markets.

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Donald has stated that he would place a 10–20 per cent tariff on all imported goods — and up to 60 per cent for China specifically, the largest importer to the US market. He reiterated that in his inaugural speech:

“I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”

Donald J Trump, 47th President of the United States

Now, there has been no confirmation on how this tariff plan would affect the country’s current trade agreements — including the Australian-US free trade agreement, which allows for tariff-free exports for Australia. The US is a major importer of Australian steel, meat, precious stones minerals and pharmaceutical products to mention a few. So if we are targeted by tariffs, our products would be more expensive and therefore less attractive to the American market.

U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump wait to greet Scott Morrison, then prime minister on Friday, Sept. 20, 2019. Morrison’s visit to the White House came as both nations sought to counter China’s growing influence in the South Pacific. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Prime Minister Albanese appeared on ABC’s 7.30 ahead of Donald’s inauguration. He stated that he had had a “constructive discussion” with the incoming president and reiterated to him that the US has enjoyed a trade surplus with Australia and is a major investor here so a good relationship between the two countries is in each other’s best interests.

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“He said that we will have a perfect relationship, and I expect the relationship between Australia and the United States will remain strong.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on 7.30

However, even if Australia is not directly impacted, there is a risk that by specifically targeting China, Australia could be affected by a trade war as they are our major trading partner as well.

Additionally, in his speech, Donald outlined his ambition for the United States to “take back” the Panama Canal. He referred to the canal as a “foolish gift” to Panama and claimed that China is now operating it.

We have been treated very badly from this foolish gift that should have never been made, and Panama’s promise to us has been broken…We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.

Donald J Trump, 47th President of the United States

As this is a major trading route, if successful, this could lead to some impact on Australian exports and imports.

A more self-focused US could also mean fewer opportunities for collaborative ventures in technology, agriculture, and manufacturing. Thus, leaving Australia to fill the gap with alternative partners in Asia or Europe.

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Donal J Trump signs in numerous executive orders after being re-elected as president of the United States
US President Donald Trump signing executive orders in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

How could the US election affect Australian climate and environmental policies?

President Donald has stated that climate change is “one of the greatest scams of all time”.

Donald’s return to the office could slow global progress on climate. Due to his scepticism about climate policies, infamous hatred of windmills and support of fossil fuels. He famously said “Drill, baby drill.” which he again repeated in his inaugural speech.

He promised to increase oil and gas production projects in the US — and has signed an executive order to open up drilling in Alaska.

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As mentioned above, Donald signed an executive order for the United States to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. This was a move he promised during his reelection campaign. Australia is a signatory to the Agreement. So for our country, this might lessen international pressure on our own emissions targets. However, it could also isolate us as other allies move ahead with stronger climate action. In sectors where climate-friendly policies boost economic growth, such as renewables, we’d lose a vital partner in the US, possibly slowing our progress in both domestic and regional efforts.

US Election 2024: Former US President Donal Trump at a Rally

In conclusion…

In short, the return of Donald J Trump to the White House could bring challenges that require Australia to readjust its regional security, climate policies, and overall self-sufficiency.

No doubt impacting our role in a fast-evolving global landscape.

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